April 15, 2020

by eric

Stimulus money arrived via direct deposit today.  I’m grateful that we can direct it to others who need it more.

Once again for those in the back: it’s not the flu!

Right-wing protests demanding that the country be re-opened are beginning to pop up around the country.  It’s hard to accept that things aren’t just one day going to be back to normal.

I fear we are about to have the worst of all worlds: squandered opportunities to prepare in the ramp-up, an economically destructive lockdown, and then a chaotic and uncontrolled reopening that in one month leads to widespread resurgence.

The rationalist “probabilistic reasoning” crowd tries to understand their own underreaction to the looming pandemic.  But humans just don’t reason with Bayes’ Theorem day-to-day–especially if there are implications we’d rather avoid.

Humor helps.