April 9, 2020

by eric

Today was beautiful spring day in Seattle.  Sunny, mid-60s.  I was able to make time for a couple walks around the neighborhood and resumed my quixotic quest to uproot all the dandelions in the median.

Parents of grade schoolers are starting to talk about stepping back from organized “remote learning” activities–the burden on working parents is just overwhelming.

There continues to be a tremendous amount of furor over the updates to the IHME model for COVID-19 spread in the US.  Gratefully the projected number of fatalities is decreasing, but many are using the decrease to paint the threat as overblown–this despite the fact that the current best estimates are well within the broad uncertainties on previous projections.  The modeling process is intrinsically hard and the models have real limitations, but the many unknowns don’t absolve us of the need to make decisions now and to do so based on data.